原油多头仍占据主导地位
上周油价整体维持看涨态势，本周初随着中东地缘政治紧张局势升级，油价面临进一步的买盘压力。周二，布伦特原油逼近每桶111美元，而西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）则稳居115美元上方。然而，随着投资者在特朗普总统设定的最后期限前对激进买盘持谨慎态度，这两大基准油价似乎都缺乏上涨动能。
原油与地缘政治
随着特朗普总统对德黑兰基础设施发动袭击的最后期限临近，且伊朗拒绝了45天停火提议，周二早盘多头动能猛增。 伊朗坚持要求永久结束冲突，并寻求针对未来袭击的保障，同时提出了自己的10点要求。特朗普称伊朗的回应“不够好”，并重申如果霍尔木兹海峡未能在其设定的最后期限前重新开放，将对基础设施发动袭击。
与此同时，大宗商品市场正面临美联储未来降息步伐的不确定性，因油价上涨加剧了全球投资者对短期通胀的担忧。市场关注点现已转向本周即将发布的关键美国通胀数据，交易员希望这些数据能为美联储的货币政策路径提供线索。
总结
预计本周原油价格将保持高度波动，对中东局势的最新动态极为敏感。 WTI原油目前交易价格接近3月高点，技术指标显示上升趋势依然完好，若价格突破近期峰值，可能继续走高。然而，若多次尝试后仍未能突破，则可能预示上行动能正在减弱。展望未来，特朗普对伊朗政策的最新动态、地缘政治局势、美国CPI数据以及美联储决策者的言论，将成为影响短期油价走势的关键因素。
警告！本文内容不构成投资建议。过往业绩数据不保证未来回报。投资外汇可能因汇率波动而影响您的收益。任何证券交易均可能产生盈利或亏损。本文所述的假设和预期仅为估计，可能不准确，且可能随当前经济状况而变化。这些陈述不保证未来回报。
Meet Syam KP, a financial markets professional with more than fourteen years of experience in forex, CFDs and capital markets. Since 2012, he has worked with several brokerage firms as a trader and market strategist, developing a practical understanding of how markets move. He also holds a qualification from CISI in the United Kingdom.
At FX Junction, Syam turns complex market information into clear and useful insights. His work combines technical and fundamental analysis, portfolio management, risk management and timely commentary on global developments. Whether markets are calm or moving fast, Syam focuses on what matters most: understanding the bigger picture, spotting meaningful opportunities and keeping risk firmly in view.
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