USDJPY：下一步走势前的横盘阶段
基本面展望
从基本面来看，日元在美元面前仍承压，因为日本央行（BoJ）在油价上涨与美国CPI数据强劲的背景下，提高利率面临挑战。这使两国之间的利差保持在较宽水平。下一次日本央行货币政策会议定于2026年4月27–28日举行，市场对4月28日加息的定价概率约为60%。
市场在3月触及160附近关键供给区后进入横盘整理。上周该货币对跌至约158，因为在停火声明发布后风险情绪改善，日元走强。日本官员警告货币走弱引发的干预担忧，以及日本央行短期内加息的预期，也对日元形成支撑。然而，美元/日元在此次下跌后于158上方获得支撑，并反弹回到整理区，表明在交易者考虑下一步行动之际，供需处于平衡状态。
技术面预测
目前，美元/日元交投于关键阻力位160下方不远处，该阻力已被多次测试但尚未突破。截至目前，该货币对接近159.00。只要价格仍处于该阻力下方，上行动能就会受到限制。下方方面，关键支撑区位于157.40至157之间。若跌破该支撑，可能预示下行趋势延续。在此之前，预计该货币对将维持区间震荡。
结论：尽管存在短期风险，美元/日元仍具备较强的上涨潜力。若能果断上破160.00至160.30之间的阻力，可能触发上冲至161和161.30。下行方面，卖方应关注是否会再次跌回157.00下方。
警告！本材料不构成投资建议。过往业绩数据不保证未来回报。投资外汇可能因其波动而影响您的回报。任何证券交易都可能产生盈利或亏损。本材料中提出的假设与预期仅为估计，可能并不准确，并可能随当前经济状况变化而改变。这些陈述不保证未来回报。
Meet Syam KP, a financial markets professional with more than fourteen years of experience in forex, CFDs and capital markets. Since 2012, he has worked with several brokerage firms as a trader and market strategist, developing a practical understanding of how markets move. He also holds a qualification from CISI in the United Kingdom.
At FX Junction, Syam turns complex market information into clear and useful insights. His work combines technical and fundamental analysis, portfolio management, risk management and timely commentary on global developments. Whether markets are calm or moving fast, Syam focuses on what matters most: understanding the bigger picture, spotting meaningful opportunities and keeping risk firmly in view.
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