美元获得逢低买入支撑，但信心仍然疲弱
周三上午，美元正经历温和回升。然而，目前的反弹看起来仍更多由空头回补推动，而非由一波明显强劲的现货买盘所驱动。
是什么导致美元温和上涨？
周二，随着市场对中东冲突外交解决的希望升温，美元的避险需求降温，美元指数跌至新的数周低点。此次温和上涨由芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）的言论触发；他表示，视油价走势而定，美联储降息可能会推迟到2027年。这削弱了市场对2026年降息的预期，从而支撑了美元反弹。
另一方面，近期下跌将小时RSI压低至20多，表明处于超卖状态，通常会带来一定的企稳或反弹。不过，这并不保证已经见底。市场可能正接近短暂的停顿，但结构性受损已很明显：短期均线走弱、振荡指标读数从中性转向偏空，若多头动能无法恢复，可能预示进一步下跌。从基本面看，如果美伊紧张局势继续缓和且油价保持稳定，这波反弹可能会失去动能。
美元是否开始转为看涨，还是只是反弹修复？
4小时DXY图表为近期中期走势提供了更细致的视角。本次反弹伴随的成交量有限，表明目前缺乏强烈的信心。关键短期支撑位在97.90附近，阻力位在98.60至98.70区间。如果指数无法突破该阻力，可能引发再次下探至97.60，尤其是在抛售量放大的情况下。98.60/70这一水平至关重要，因为在近期下跌后，它已从支撑位转变为阻力位。
另一方面，若能明确突破并在该区域上方持续交易，则表明近期98.00附近可能是短期底部，并可能推动本轮周期中的下一次重要上行走势。
警告！本材料不构成投资建议。过往业绩数据不保证未来回报。投资外汇可能因其波动而影响您的回报。任何证券交易都可能产生盈利或亏损。本材料中提出的假设与预期仅为估计，可能并不准确，并可能随当前经济状况变化而改变。这些陈述不保证未来回报。
Meet Syam KP, a financial markets professional with more than fourteen years of experience in forex, CFDs and capital markets. Since 2012, he has worked with several brokerage firms as a trader and market strategist, developing a practical understanding of how markets move. He also holds a qualification from CISI in the United Kingdom.
At FX Junction, Syam turns complex market information into clear and useful insights. His work combines technical and fundamental analysis, portfolio management, risk management and timely commentary on global developments. Whether markets are calm or moving fast, Syam focuses on what matters most: understanding the bigger picture, spotting meaningful opportunities and keeping risk firmly in view.
相关文章
Eurozone Inflation Hits 4% as ECB Faces Renewed Rate Pressure
Eurozone inflation reaches a three-year high, driven largely by surging energy prices. With underlying inflation remaining relatively stable, the European Central Bank faces a difficult decision: raise interest rates to contain future price pressures or avoid further weakening economic growth.
阅读更多 →Democratic Sweep Sends Dollar Lower as AI Stocks Face New Risks
The U.S. dollar falls to a one-month low after Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress. Investors are reassessing the outlook for AI investment, government spending and borrowing costs as Washington prepares for divided government.
阅读更多 →