Brent had briefly reached $110 on Friday before settling at $109.86, its highest close since May 19. WTI finished that session at $101.41, its strongest settlement since September 17.
Russian Sanctions Relief Shifts Expectations
President Donald Trump’s October 16 executive order waived tariffs and sanctions imposed under the Graham Act. Earlier sanctions established through separate executive orders remain in place, making the scope of the relief important.
Easier trading conditions could support Russian fuel exports and reduce pressure on buyers competing for available supplies. However, the effect will depend on which transactions become feasible and how quickly additional cargoes reach the market.
Legal relief does not immediately increase production or refining capacity. A lasting improvement in supply would depend on additional deliveries reaching the market.
Middle East Disruptions Remain in Focus
Concerns about shipping security continue to complicate the outlook. Reuters reported that attacks on commercial vessels had sharply reduced Gulf crude flows last week, citing ship-tracking analytics firm Kpler.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s October outlook also assumed that Middle Eastern oil flows would remain constrained through the fourth quarter, despite an expected gradual recovery in regional production and exports.
That leaves prices sensitive to both actual supply losses and the possibility of further disruption. If shipping remains unreliable, expectations of more Russian fuel may offer only limited relief.
What Could Extend the Pullback?
A sustained decline would become more plausible if higher Russian exports coincided with safer shipping routes and recovering Gulf deliveries. Evidence from cargo movements would carry more weight than policy announcements alone.
Conversely, renewed attacks on export infrastructure or tankers could quickly restore the premium investors attach to supply risk. Oil could recover even if sanctions relief continues, particularly if replacement supplies arrive slowly.
Inventory data will provide another test. Continued stock draws would suggest that available supply remains insufficient to meet demand, while broader inventory rebuilding could support expectations of a more balanced market. Weekly figures will also need to be assessed alongside refinery activity and seasonal shifts in fuel consumption.
For traders, WTI’s move below $100 is a visible marker of the pullback. Whether it develops into a broader reversal will depend on physical supply conditions and how they compare with expectations already reflected in prices.
Warning! This material is not intended as investment advice. Past performance data does not guarantee future returns. Investing in foreign currencies may affect your returns due to their fluctuations. Any transaction in securities may result in both profits and losses. The assumptions and expectations set forth in this material are only estimates that may not be accurate and may change depending on current economic conditions. These statements do not guarantee future returns.
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