SpaceX stock falls 50% from its peak: Is it a buy?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) has declined approximately 50% from its all-time high, falling below its initial public offering (IPO) price to close near $108 on Friday, July 31. This compares to the IPO price of $135, representing a decrease of roughly 20% from the offering price. The largest IPO in history has now traded below its $135 IPO price for eight consecutive sessions.

The prolonged selloff has erased nearly $1.2 trillion in market value from the company’s post-listing peak, with shares plummeting sharply from a record high of $225.64 reached in June. Since mid-June, the stock has been on a downward trajectory, consistently making lower highs and lower lows, and has not revisited the $225 peak. 

Just over six weeks after completing the largest IPO in American history, SpaceX has gone from being Wall Street's most promising stock to one of its most disappointing. Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) designs and launches reusable rockets, operates the Starlink satellite internet network, and develops the Starship deep-space exploration system. 

Focus Shifts to August 4 Earnings Report

The next critical catalyst for SpaceX’s share price will be the upcoming earnings report, scheduled for Tuesday, August 4, 2026, that could bring more supply to the market. Investor focus has also turned to the expiration of SpaceX’s post-IPO lock-up agreements on August 6. Up to 911.5 million shares could become eligible for trading once the lock-up period ends, representing nearly $100 billion in potential market value. Lock-up agreements prevent company insiders and early investors from selling shares immediately following an IPO.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

The stock is currently down more than 50% from its post-IPO peak, presenting an appealing risk-reward profile for long-term investors, especially attractive near $100. However, investors should carefully monitor SpaceX’s first public earnings report and the upcoming lock-up expirations. The earnings report is expected to provide a comprehensive overview of SpaceX’s financial performance. Additionally, investors should assess whether the company’s fundamentals continue to improve through Starship execution, Starlink expansion, and revenue growth prospects, despite the recent negative market trends.

Warning! This material is not intended as investment advice. Past performance data does not guarantee future returns. Investing in foreign currencies may affect your returns due to their fluctuations. Any transaction in securities may result in both profits and losses. The assumptions and expectations set forth in this material are only estimates that may not be accurate and may change depending on current economic conditions. These statements do not guarantee future returns.