Wall Street Futures Rise as Hopes for Iran Deal Ease Oil Pressure

U.S. stock futures recovered from early losses Friday as renewed hopes for a resolution to the conflict with Iran lifted sentiment. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher, while oil prices fell on the prospect of more reliable crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The shift reflects how closely investors are watching developments in the waterway. A sustained improvement in shipping could ease pressure on energy prices and, in turn, concerns about inflation. For now, the market is responding to the possibility of progress: no agreement to reopen the strait has been finalized.

A phased agreement remains uncertain

Washington and Tehran are reportedly exploring a phased approach to de-escalation. A senior Iranian official has said Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the United States reduces military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Those conditions leave significant questions about whether the two sides can reach an agreement and how quickly it could take effect.

Any credible path toward restoring crude flows would matter beyond the oil market. Lower energy costs could relieve pressure on businesses and consumers while reducing one source of uncertainty for investors assessing the inflation outlook.

U.S.–China truce offers another source of relief

Trade policy is also providing support. The United States and China have agreed to extend their trade truce until January 10, giving the two countries more time to work toward a broader agreement. The extension reduces the near-term risk of renewed escalation between the world’s two largest economies, although their wider trade differences remain unresolved.

Shares of major technology companies, including the large AI investors known as hyperscalers, are also rebounding after losses earlier in the week. Their recovery could lend support to the Nasdaq if it holds through the opening bell.

Economic data and Fed remarks come next

Investors will turn to Friday’s durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report for a clearer view of business demand and household confidence. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak. Their comments on inflation and interest rates could influence the market’s direction, particularly if they change expectations for the Fed’s next move.

Geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the main driver of sentiment. Friday’s higher futures point to a more optimistic open, but that outlook will depend on whether diplomatic signals develop into concrete steps toward easing the conflict and restoring shipping through the strait.

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